Inside the CFL: All or nothing
Football Betting Lines
02/21/2012 - Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a quote that can come back and bite you.
"The (Hamilton) Tiger-Cats are on the threshold of being the type of team to win the Grey Cup."
Those words came from Hamilton general manager Bob O'Billovich at a news conference Tuesday to unveil the biggest free-agent signing in the CFL offseason. The Tiger-Cats, who made it to the Eastern Final in Winnipeg last season, went halfway around the world to get the player they wanted.
Last Friday, they announced the signing of slotback Andy Fantuz to a four-year deal worth a reported $180,000-plus per year.
Fantuz established himself as one of the league's top receivers during his six seasons (2006-11) with the Saskatchewan Roughriders. In 77 regular-season games, he has 289 receptions for 4,311 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Fantuz, a 6-foot-4, 220-pound native of Chatham, Ontario, was on vacation in Tanzania when new coach George Cortez made the initial call at the start of the free agency window.
Fantuz admitted it was a tough decision to leave Saskatchewan.
"You never know if the grass is greener on the other side or not," he said. "Having something that was very stable made it tough to leave. But, I've always wanted to come back home and play here in Southwestern Ontario."
He also seemed surprised that some Riders fans, and some members of the media, wondered why he'd leave the continent during the start of the free agent process.
"It was just an opportunity where I could get away for a few weeks," he explained. "The timing didn't have to do with the free agent deadline. I wanted to maximize my trip there. When you're going halfway across the world, it happened to be at the same time. I spoke with my agent about it, and he said it's OK, it's not a big deal, and we'll be able to get it done. We'll have a phone, we'll have e-mail. I was next to my phone the entire time."
The 2010 season was Fantuz's most productive. He was named the CFL's Most Outstanding Canadian that season, after catching 87 passes for 1,380 yards and six touchdowns.
In 2011, Fantuz played in four games with the Riders after attending training camp with the NFL's Chicago Bears.
Fantuz helped the Roughriders reach three Grey Cup finals in the first five years of his career and was named Most Valuable Canadian in Saskatchewan's 2007 championship win over Winnipeg, catching four passes for 70 yards and one touchdown.
The 28-year-old was selected by the Riders with the third overall pick in the 2006 CFL Canadian Draft after a record-setting CIS career at Western. He was the recipient of the Hec Crighton award as the top player in CIS football in 2005.
He said he can't wait for the season to start.
"I definitely feel this team has a shot at the Grey Cup. I know Saskatchewan is rebuilding, and I'd love to meet them in the Grey Cup to be honest with you." he said with a laugh. "But, this team has a lot of good pieces, and they've been strong for a few years, but just couldn't get over the hump."
On Jan. 3, the Tabbies picked up quarterback Henry Burris from Calgary in a trade, sending quarterback Kevin Glenn, offensive lineman Mark DeWit and a conditional draft pick.
Burris and Cortez have worked together previously, most recently between 2007-2009 when Cortez served as offensive coordinator and associate head coach of the Calgary Stampeders.
The Stampeders offense had a banner year under Cortez in 2008, with Burris earning the West Division Most Outstanding Player award after throwing for 5,094 yards and 39 touchdowns. Burris also was named the Grey Cup MVP after totaling 443 yards of offence in Calgary's championship win over the Montreal Alouettes.
One day later, the Tiger-Cats announced the signing of three more free agents, non-import linebacker Kevin Eiben, import defensive end Greg Peach and non- import offensive lineman Tim O'Neill.
Eiben, a 6-1, 216-pounder, joins the Tiger-Cats after 11 seasons with the Toronto Argonauts. He's been an East Division All-Star four times and a CFL All-Star three times, and was named the East Division's Most Outstanding Canadian in 2004.
Peach, a 6-3, 255-pound native of Vancouver, Wash., had 94 defensive stops and 13 quarterback sacks in the previous three seasons with the Edmonton Eskimos. The Eastern Washington graduate and 2008 Buck Buchanan Award winner, played in 12 games with the Eskimos last season, making 21 defensive tackles and three sacks in 12 regular-season games before adding six tackles and two sacks in two playoff games.
O'Neill, a 6-3, 305-pound native of Victoria, British Columbia, spent the last four years with the Calgary Stampeders, suiting up in 68 games as a guard and center. Last season, he dressed in all 18 regular-season games, starting 15 at center.
A 2005 third-round selection of the Edmonton Eskimos, O'Neill captured a Grey Cup championship with the Stampeders in 2008.
With a new coaching staff, and new players added to the lineup, the feeling around the CFL is the Tiger-Cats may have done more than any other team to bolster their lineup in the offseason.
The question now is ... will it be good enough?
SCHEDULE NOTES
The CFL has released its 2012 schedule. In an ironic twist, the Tiger-Cats open up the regular season, on Friday, June 29, when they host Fantuz's former team, Saskatchewan at Ivor Wynne Stadium.
Because Ivor Wynne Stadium is being torn down and renovated at the end of the 2012 season, don't be surprised if the Labour Day Classic between the Argos and Tiger-Cats is played at the Rogers Center in Toronto in 2013.
Ted Michaels is a news and sportscaster on AM 900 CHML in Hamilton, Ontario.
Comments? Criticism? Applause? ted@900chml.com.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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